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商品訊息功能:

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下面附上優惠網站一則新聞讓大家了解時事

鉅亨台北資料中心

◆盤勢分析

【昨日盤勢】：儘管前一日歐美股市下跌，但市場傳出政府基金將為新政府就職護盤，在消息面激勵下，上週五台股開盤上漲13點以8108點開出後，在權值股台積電、南亞科、可成、大立光、台泥、台化等領軍上漲帶動，指數震盪走揚，並在總統就職演說結束後，多頭拉抬至最高點8165點；不過，由於量能始終未能放大，高檔賣壓出籠，指數回吐部份漲幅，尾盤以小紅作收。觀察盤面類股變化，電子類股上漲0.57%、傳產類股上漲0.33%、金融類股上漲0.18%。電子族群以半導體、資訊服務與光電表現較佳，漲幅約為0.8-0.9%%；傳產族群則以橡膠、汽車與水泥表現較佳，漲幅約為0.9~1%。終場加權指數上漲35點，收在8131點，成交量能為576億元。

【資金動向】：三大法人合計賣超2.9億元，其中，外資賣超1億元，投信買超0.8億元，自營商賣超2.8億元。外資買超前五大為緯創、台積電、永豐金、光寶科、統一；賣超前五大為群創、聯電、友達、日月光、鴻海。投信買超前五大為友達、群創、兆豐金、可成、台郡；賣超前五大為台化、全新、智邦、F-GIS、正新。資券變化方面，融資減5.5億元，融資餘額為1301億元，融?增0.9萬張，融券餘額為35.6萬張。外資台指期部位，淨多單增加8,612口，淨多單部位3.7萬口。借券賣出金額26.5億元。

【今日盤勢分析】：台股上週在520前瀰漫新政府就職演說觀望氣氛，日均量僅629億元，較前一週日均量771億元減少18.3%，呈現量縮價平的盤整格局。不過就類股表現而言，新政府概念股生技、航太等皆有表現，顯示市場壓寶520後相關概念股應有政策利多之表現空間。展望後市，觀察重點如下：第一、新政府就職演說中，關於兩岸關係雖未提及是否承認九二共識，但尊重九二會談歷史事實，欲和緩兩岸緊張關係，惟中國國台辦、海協會等機構陸續發表聲明，強調兩岸會談必須在台灣承認九二共識基礎上，顯示未來兩岸經濟互動恐仍受影響。新政府為降低對中國經濟依賴，提出新南向政策，預估對近期積極佈局東南亞市場的紡織、輪胎、食品等產業有利。至於產業政策方面，新政府提及長照、食安、社會安全、環保、再生能源等領域，並重申優先推動五大創新研發計畫，顯示生技、國防、智能產業、網通、綠能等將為下半年新政府政策主軸，相關概念股或有表現機會。第二、國際資金動向方面，在Fed公佈4月會議記錄後，市場明顯增加6月Fed升息預期，加上英國最新民調顯示，6月英國脫歐機率降低，助漲美元轉強，導致亞幣呈現貶值趨勢，外資呈現連16日淨賣超台股，合計淨賣超金額達1209億元。若美元持續走強，恐不利外資回流。加上４月外銷訂單，呈現連續13個月負成長，２Q16整季接單恐難以轉正，評估將對多頭欲力守台股8100點形成壓力。第三、技術面，上週台股雖然週線收紅，終結連四黑窘境，但是市場屏息新政府就職演說，市場觀望氣氛濃厚，指數呈現價平量縮格局，短線8000-8100點暫時獲得支撐，惟上週五台股成交量僅576億元，再創5月以來波段新低量，在量能不振下，台股仍應保守視之。

【投資策略】：上週台股成交量低迷，520前市場觀望氣氛濃厚，台股陷入低檔盤整格局。儘管新政府重申優先推動五大創新研發計畫等政策利多，但外銷訂單至４月為止已連續13個月負成長，加上美元短期走強趨勢，恐不利外資回流。520過後，量能萎縮變成台股最大的隱憂，操作上應保守為宜，選股上，僅建議低接業績成長股，如網通、醫材、食品等族群以及新政府概念股如生技、航太等。另外，高殖利率族群亦可留意。

 

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